The Biggest Gaps in the Boks and All Blacks Squads

When you start looking at the most important players on a tour involving the Boks and the All Blacks, the obvious names tend to come to mind first. For the Bokke, there is a very strong argument for Pieter-Steph du Toit, Malcolm Marx or Cheslin Kolbe, three players who have become hugely influential to the way the Boks play.

New Zealand have their own list of world-class players who could justifiably be described as indispensable, with the likes of Will Jordan and Ardie Savea easily entering the conversation.

However, I think there is a slightly different way of looking at the question.

The most important player is not necessarily the best player in the squad. It is the player whose absence creates the biggest gap between the first-choice option and the player coming in behind him. When you look at the squads through that lens, two names stand out above the rest: Cam Roigard for the All Blacks and Damian Willemse for the Boks

There is probably no clearer indication of how important Cam Roigard is to the All Blacks than the fact that he has not played a single minute on this tour yet. New Zealand have effectively wrapped their first-choice scrum-half in cotton wool, carefully managing his workload ahead of the matches that really matter. Calf niggle aside, that tells you plenty about where he sits in their plans. This is not a position where the All Blacks have the luxury of losing him without a significant impact on the way they play.

Behind Roigard, New Zealand have Cortez Ratima and Kyle Preston. Both are talented young scrum-halves who have plenty of potential, and neither should be written off as being incapable of Test rugby. The problem for the All Blacks is that neither is currently in the same conversation as Roigard when it comes to being their established first-choice No. 9. Roigard has become the player New Zealand want controlling the tempo of their attack, and his ability to bring speed to the game, threaten around the fringes and keep defences under pressure makes him particularly important to the way they want to play. Add to that the fact that he may very well be needed to assist Ruben Love through some tough moments in the play-maker role.

Adding to this is the fact that New Zealand have taken only three scrum-halves on tour makes the situation even more interesting. There is very little margin for error in the position. If Roigard is available, he is clearly the preferred option, with Ratima and Preston providing the cover behind him. That isn't a criticism of either youngster, it is simply an acknowledgement of the enormous difference between the established starter and the next two players in line.

For a team preparing to face the Springboks, that difference becomes even more important. South Africa's ability to dominate the collisions and put pressure on opposition ball means that the scrum-half has an enormous role to play in getting his team playing quickly and efficiently. Roigard gives New Zealand the best chance of doing that. If he is taken out of the equation, the All Blacks don't just lose a very good player. They lose the player who has established himself as the clear No. 1 in a position that is crucial in allowing the All Blacks to play the fast tempo game that they thrive in.

The Springboks present a slightly different argument, because their squad has arguably more depth than any other team in world rugby. If you were simply asked which South African players are hardest to replace, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Cheslin Kolbe would be right at the top of the conversation. Both are hugely important players, and losing either would undoubtedly weaken the Boks.

The difference, however, is that South Africa have more capable replacements for them than they do for Damian Willemse.

That might sound strange given the quality of the Springbok squad, but look specifically at the fullback position and the picture becomes much clearer. Willemse has made a massive start to the international season and has increasingly looked like the only player South Africa want wearing the No. 15 jersey. His versatility has always been one of his biggest strengths, but he has also developed into a player who can give the Boks control from the back while still providing the attacking ability they need when the game opens up.

The options behind him are not quite as convincing. Aphelele Fassi has already shown that he can perform at Test level and has the talent to be an excellent international fullback, but he is still searching for his best form after returning from injury. Quan Horn is one of the more exciting young players in the South African system, but there is a significant difference between being an exciting prospect and being an established Test fullback capable of stepping straight into Willemse's role against the very best opposition.

Then there is Willie le Roux, who remains an immensely experienced player but is effectively at the end of his international career. A call up for Willie whilst not off the cards, would signal warning bells for our last line of defence and our succession planning.

Of course, the Boks have other players who can cover the position. Cheslin Kolbe has played fullback, Canan Moodie can cover multiple positions in the back three and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has the versatility to move around the backline. But there is an important distinction between having players who are capable of filling in at fullback and having a genuine replacement for Damian Willemse.

That's why I would put Willemse at the top of the list when it comes to South Africa's most important player on this tour.

This isn't an argument that Willemse is a better player than Pieter-Steph du Toit or Cheslin Kolbe, just as it isn't an argument that Roigard is necessarily the best player in the All Blacks squad. The point is that their respective positions have a bigger gap between the starter and the next genuine option than almost anywhere else in either squad.

That is an important distinction, particularly when you consider the extraordinary depth both teams have built. The Springboks have spent years developing a squad where one injury doesn't necessarily derail their plans. They have multiple world-class players competing for positions, and that means they can absorb the loss of some of their biggest stars better than most teams in world rugby.

If Pieter-Steph du Toit is unavailable, South Africa can still put together a world-class loose-forward combination. If Cheslin Kolbe is missing, there are other elite outside backs capable of stepping into the team. It doesn't mean those players are easily replaced; it simply means the drop-off to the next option isn't quite as severe.

The same principle applies to New Zealand. The All Blacks have plenty of talented players who can step into different positions, but at scrum-half they have a very clear hierarchy. Roigard is the man they want, and the gap behind him is considerable.

That makes both players particularly important in the context of this tour. The outcome of a Test match is never going to come down to one individual, and neither team is going to collapse simply because one player is missing. But when you are looking for the players whose absence would force their coaches to make the biggest adjustment, Roigard and Willemse stand out.