Why November Could Cost the Boks a Final.

The Springboks are heading North for the second half of the Nations Championship, and while South African supporters will undoubtedly have their sights set on another trophy, there is a very real possibility that the Boks won't feature in the final. Not because they aren't good enough, but because the road to Twickenham is arguably a much tougher one for Rassie and his men than it is for their greatest rivals, the All Blacks.

The Boks face Italy in Turin on 7 November, France in Paris on 13 November and Ireland in Dublin on 21 November, before the Nations Championship concludes with its finals weekend at Twickenham. Unlike a traditional knockout tournament, the six Southern Hemisphere sides will be ranked from first to sixth following their six fixtures against Northern opposition. They will then face their corresponding opponents from the Northern hemisphere, with 1st playing 1st for the title, 2nd playing 2nd, and so on. In other words, finishing second in the Southern Hemisphere standings means missing out on the final altogether, regardless of how impressive your campaign might have been.

After the opening three rounds in July, both the Springboks and All Blacks find themselves unbeaten and firmly in contention for top spot. New Zealand made the most of their home advantage with victories over Ireland, France and Italy, while South Africa dispatched England, Scotland and Wales. The Boks currently hold a slight advantage on points difference, but after a grueling Rugby's Greatest Rivalry series, which South Africa won 3-1, the two sides are once again competing for top honors. This time, however, the fixture list may have handed the All Blacks a significant advantage.

While New Zealand now travel North to face England, Scotland and Wales, the Springboks have the considerably more daunting prospect of taking on France and Ireland, with Italy also on the schedule. There is no such thing as an easy Test match, particularly away from home but it would be difficult to argue that the All Blacks haven't been handed the more favorable draw. Scotland are certainly capable of producing an upset at Murrayfield, but beating the All Blacks would still be a significant achievement. Wales have struggled to consistently compete with the world's leading sides in recent years, whilst England, despite possessing plenty of talent and money, just don't seem capable of putting together a complete 80-minute performance when it matters.

Compare that with what awaits the Springboks. France at home is an entirely different proposition to France on the road. The French rarely travel with a full strength squad yet always load up for their home games. Then there is Ireland in Dublin which remains one of the toughest assignments in international rugby. Both sides have the quality, experience and home support to beat the Boks, and neither would need to produce some miraculous performance to do so. The reality is that South Africa could play some outstanding rugby in November, win two of their three Tests and still finish behind the All Blacks if New Zealand manage a clean sweep. That is the nature of this competition, and it makes every result, and potentially even points difference, incredibly important.

Of course, there is another element to consider, and that is the approach Rassie will take to team selection. The Springboks have yet to announce their touring squad, and after an incredibly demanding Rugby's Greatest Rivalry series, there are legitimate questions about how many of the established stars will make the trip North.

The likes of Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi, Ox Nché, Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth, Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel have all been central to the Springboks' success, but whether some of these players are rested entirely or have their workloads carefully managed remains to be seen.

What we do know is that squad rotation has been a fundamental part of Rassie's approach, particularly as he looks to develop combinations and build depth ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup. That approach was largely put on hold during Rugby's Greatest Rivalry, where the significance of the series demanded a more settled selection strategy, but there is every reason to believe we could see a return to more regular rotation in November.

That isn't necessarily a bad thing. In fact, the depth Rassie has developed has been one of the defining features of his tenure. However, there is a difference between rotating players against opposition you are expected to beat and doing so against France and Ireland on their home turf.

For all the confidence surrounding this Springbok side, we also need to appreciate just how difficult their November assignment really is. Beating France in Paris is an achievement in itself. Following that up with a victory over Ireland in Dublin the following weekend would be an extraordinary accomplishment. Both nations will be desperate to make a statement against the world champions, and neither will be short of motivation. Add the physical toll of a long season and the intensity of the recent All Blacks series, as well as being rushed back into action for their clubs in the URC and Champions cup. suddenly the prospect of winning all three fixtures becomes a much bigger ask.

Perhaps the most interesting part of this discussion is that Rassie finds himself in a position few international coaches are fortunate enough to enjoy. With two World Cup titles, a squad packed with world-class talent and a Rugby's Greatest Rivalry series victory now added to his achievements, he has earned a considerable amount of goodwill among South African supporters. With the 2027 World Cup firmly on the horizon, November also represents an opportunity to test combinations, expose players to hostile environments and continue building the depth required to defend the Webb Ellis Cup in Australia.

That doesn't mean Rassie will simply sacrifice the Nations Championship. The Springboks are fiercely competitive, and there is no reason to believe they won't approach every match with the intention of winning. But if the choice comes down to protecting key players, developing depth and preparing for the World Cup, or chasing a place in another final at all costs, history suggests Rassie won't lose sight of the bigger picture.

The possibility of the Springboks finishing second in the southern hemisphere standings and missing out on the inaugural Nations Championship final might be difficult for supporters to swallow, particularly after the high of beating the All Blacks. But the reality is that the Boks could return from November having played some excellent rugby, beaten two quality opponents and made significant progress towards the World Cup, yet still find themselves watching New Zealand compete for the title. Disappointing, absolutely, but not necessarily a failure.

None of this means the Boks cannot win all three fixtures. They absolutely can, and they have shown time and again that they are capable of rising to the biggest occasions. However, if we're assessing the two unbeaten Southern Hemisphere contenders purely on the difficulty of their remaining fixtures, the All Blacks would surely be favourites to finish top.

And while the trophy Rassie really has his eyes on is waiting in Australia next year, we all know how much us Saffas love a final. So I wouldn't bet against him finding a way to get us to Twickenham anyway.